Gartner estimates that data center owners will need $8.5 trillion in revenue through 2030 to cover their costs, while actual revenue is not expected to exceed $3.6 trillion.
Echoes of the Lehman Brothers crisis and off-balance-sheet debt
IMF warning, CoreWeave stock decline, and $50 billion debt
The $4.9 trillion revenue gap and the growth rate test
Frequently asked questions
Echoes of the Lehman Brothers crisis and off-balance-sheet debt
Two analytical articles published on Sunday, October 25, 2026, argued that the investment boom in artificial intelligence is showing warning signs similar to those that preceded the 2008 global financial crisis. The articles point to surging debt, hard-to-track financing mechanisms, and a recent IMF warning regarding leverage, following a rough month for the sector’s most indebted companies, led by a sharp drop in CoreWeave stock.
In a guest opinion piece for The New York Times, Jane Harris wrote that artificial intelligence is turning into the largest investment in U.S. history, and that companies are “reviving concerning practices” from the pre-financial crisis era. She explained that companies are keeping massive amounts of debt off their public balance sheets, and that pension funds and insurance companies are buying complex financial products backed by assets of uncertain value, alongside a limited number of companies trading massive volumes among themselves, which artificially inflates demand.
Because a larger share of American wealth is concentrated today in AI-linked stocks compared to what was deposited in real estate before 2008, Harris argues that any market setback could wipe out wealth surpassing what the 2008 crisis erased. A separate analysis by the paper, republished by The Business Times, cited a 2022 study published in the Journal of Finance concluding that rapid growth in borrowing coupled with quick price gains in the same sector raises the probability of a financial crisis to about 40%, compared to roughly 7% in normal times. Harvard economist Samuel Hanson said, “The lights are flashing orange,” while risk manager Richard Bookstaber emphasized that he feels more concern today than he did prior to the last crisis.
IMF warning, CoreWeave stock decline, and $50 billion debt
The International Monetary Fund’s Global Financial Stability Report, released on October 13, 2026, warned that a correction in artificial intelligence-related asset prices “could be magnified by high leverage and concentrated investment exposures.” The report also cautioned that “the consequences of an AI sector correction could be global in scale.”
On the market front, CoreWeave shares plummeted 25% that week, then dropped an additional 9% through October 22, losing more than half their value from their 52-week high. Reuters reported that the cost of insuring CoreWeave debt against default climbed above 1000 basis points, and Oracle was hit hard as investors focused on the company’s roughly $50 billion in Nvidia-backed debt and circular financing deals linking chipmakers to their customers.
The $4.9 trillion revenue gap and the growth rate test
Research firm Gartner estimates that data center owners will need to generate $8.5 trillion in revenue through 2030 to cover their capital and operational costs, though it forecasts that data center-related AI revenue will not cross the $3.6 trillion ceiling during that timeframe.
Jane Harris noted that the Nasdaq Composite index fell more than 5% over two weeks amid reports of slowing revenue growth at OpenAI and Anthropic. Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, said, “The burden is now on artificial intelligence companies to keep delivering extremely high growth rates, or else we could face a terrifying moment of sudden realization.”
Frequently asked questions
Question: Why do analysts compare the current AI boom to the run-up to the 2008 crisis?
Answer: Because of the rapid rise in off-balance-sheet debt, circular financing deals between companies, and the purchase by pension funds and insurance companies of complex financial products backed by assets of uncertain value.
Question: What does the Journal of Finance study say about the probability of a financial crisis?
Answer: The study showed that combining rapid growth in borrowing with quick asset price increases within the same sector raises the probability of a financial crisis to 40%, compared to 7% in normal times.
Question: What is the scale of debt and declines faced by CoreWeave?
Answer: CoreWeave’s debt stands at approximately $50 billion, and its shares fell 25% followed by another 9% to lose more than half their value from their yearly peak, with the cost of insuring its debt exceeding 1000 basis points.
Question: What revenue gap does Gartner forecast for data centers through 2030?
Answer: Gartner estimates that data center owners need $8.5 trillion to cover costs through 2030, while related AI revenues will not exceed $3.6 trillion.
