Article contents:
- Introduction: “Will we all be replaced by AI?”
- Microsoft study: Historians in second place
- Historians’ reaction: “This is absurd”
- Lessons from history: A profession used to skepticism
- AI as a tool, not a replacement
- How was the study conducted?
- The ATM paradox: Does automation create jobs?
- Conclusion: Human expertise cannot be replaced
Introduction: “Will we all be replaced by AI?”
Amid the global frenzy over AI’s potential to eliminate jobs, a recent study from Microsoft has added fuel to the fire. The study ranked the “historian” job in second place on the list of professions most vulnerable to AI replacement. This classification sparked a wave of controversy and concern, but it was also met with considerable skepticism by historians themselves, who offer important lessons for other professions expected to be outpaced by AI.
Microsoft study: Historians in second place
Researchers at Microsoft compared how people use AI with tasks that make up hundreds of jobs. They found that historians rank second behind “interpreters and translators” in terms of “highest degree of AI applicability.” The study concluded that 91 percent of historians’ work activities were covered to some extent by AI queries. This high figure led to sensational headlines such as “Are any jobs left safe from AI?”.
Historians’ reaction: “This is absurd”
The study’s findings were met with a flat rejection from the historical community. Sarah Weicksel, who heads the American Historical Association, said: «This is absurd. It is a fundamental misunderstanding of what historians do and who historians are». She explained that these programs cannot understand and contextualize information the way historians do. She recalled the advice of her PhD advisor: don’t worry about remembering specific dates; what you need to know is how to interpret events in a broader context. And that is the essence of a historian’s work: interpretation, not just retrieving facts.
Lessons from history: A profession used to skepticism
Historians have a unique perspective because they have heard this kind of talk before. The undergraduate history major has dealt with skepticism about its usefulness for decades. Yet recent history graduates have a lower unemployment rate (4.6%) than recent computer science graduates (6.1%). Historians find work in surprising places, from the National Security Agency to the American Girl doll company, because they possess vital skills like critical thinking, research, and analysis.
AI as a tool, not a replacement
While Weicksel does not believe the end of historians is near, she expects AI to change how they do their jobs. The American Historical Association hopes technology will be used to speed up research across massive collections of documents. Weicksel says: «People see AI as a threat, but generative AI cannot replace expertise».
How was the study conducted?
The study used the O*NET database, an occupational dictionary, to break down occupations into job tasks. It then compared these tasks with 200,000 conversations between users and Microsoft Copilot AI, looking for places where AI appeared to have successfully completed a similar task. But Microsoft itself warned that its study is not definitive, stating: «Our data does not indicate that AI will replace these jobs or even that chatbots can perform any single profession entirely».
The ATM paradox: Does automation create jobs?
Microsoft researchers point to the example of automated teller machines (ATMs). When they appeared in the 1970s, they automated many bank teller tasks. But they actually led to an increase in the number of bank teller jobs, as banks opened more branches and tellers freed up to focus on other tasks. This demonstrates that technology’s impact on jobs is complex and unexpected.
Conclusion: Human expertise cannot be replaced
The story of “historians and AI” demonstrates a broader lesson: the ability to perform a task should not be confused with the ability to perform an entire job. AI may be great at synthesizing facts and data, but it lacks the human capacity for interpretation, critique, and deep contextual understanding. For historians, and many others, these are the skills that define their true value. And as Weicksel confidently stated: «Don’t worry, we’re here to stay». And history will be the judge.
Frequently asked questions
Q: What other jobs did the study classify as at risk?
A: The top list included translators, flight attendants, sales representatives, writers and authors, customer service representatives, tool programmers, and telephone operators.
Q: What jobs are considered safest from AI according to the study?
A: The safest jobs tended to involve physical labor or machinery operation, such as dishwashers, roofers, taxidermists, and the least affected job was “bulldozer operator”.
Q: Is the study completely reliable?
A: Microsoft itself admits that the study has limits. It compares tasks, but it does not account for nuances and intangible skills like critical thinking and context, which are vital in many professions.
