Gary Marcus argues that Anthropic’s $1.4 trillion valuation assumes the continuation of previous token consumption booms while quarterly growth rates slow down and infrastructure commitments swell to $895.4 billion.
Gary Marcus’s article and his call to avoid Anthropic’s IPO
The drop in quarterly growth from 147% to 47% and the fading token consumption wave
The burden of $895.4 billion in spending commitments and circular financing
Governance structure, weak institutional returns, and the IPO’s implications for OpenAI
Frequently asked questions
Gary Marcus’s article and his call to avoid Anthropic’s IPO
In an analytical article published via his Marcus on AI newsletter on Substack, well-known AI researcher and critic Gary Marcus presented a detailed argument that “Anthropic’s” planned Nasdaq listing is an unviable bet for public market investors.
Marcus stated that he would personally avoid participating in this IPO, considering that the company’s targeted valuation of up to $1.4 trillion relies on optimistic growth assumptions that no longer hold up against the latest quarterly figures, following a valuation cut of more than 30% from previous estimates.
The drop in quarterly growth from 147% to 47% and the fading token consumption wave
In the core of his financial analysis, Marcus pointed out that Anthropic’s quarterly revenue growth rate fell sharply from 147% in the second quarter to 47% in the third quarter of 2026. He attributed this sequential slowdown to the fading wave of heavy code token consumption and to escalating price competition from cheaper Chinese models.
Marcus cited successive studies—from an early Massachusetts Institute of Technology study to a Bank of England study published last week—indicating that many companies still find a relatively limited return on investment from generative AI, prompting them to cut back on code token consumption.
The burden of $895.4 billion in spending commitments and circular financing
The analysis highlighted that Anthropic’s amended prospectus lists approximately $895.4 billion in future contractual spending commitments, directed mostly toward compute and data center infrastructure.
Marcus pointed out that instead of relying entirely on external buyers, the company depends in part on 7 companies with which it has massive business transactions—Google, Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, Micron, Microsoft, and TSMC—to jointly pump $26 billion into the private placement, leaving nearly $40 billion that needs to be raised from the public market. He compared this to OpenAI’s recent completion of an $11 billion round instead of $30 billion.
Governance structure, weak institutional returns, and the IPO’s implications for OpenAI
Marcus also criticized the corporate governance structure that keeps founders in a firm position of control regardless of results, meaning public offering buyers have little power to change management, alongside a large segment of major users relying on venture-backed startups that may face difficulties staying afloat.
Marcus concluded by noting that OpenAI—which postponed its public offering to next year—is now practically at the mercy of Anthropic’s IPO results. If Anthropic’s public market debut stumbles, subsequent listing plans in the sector could face severe headwinds.
Whether investors agree with Gary Marcus’s harsh critical perspective or bet on the continued expansion of the enterprise AI market, the transition of a company of Anthropic’s size to a public listing on Nasdaq will impose an unprecedented level of financial discipline and accounting transparency. For the first time, sector valuations will shift from closed investment narratives to testing quarterly earnings, operating margins, and the coverage of contractual commitments in front of shareholders. Amid this clear divergence between trillion-dollar valuation ambitions and warnings of slowing quarterly growth and bloated compute bills, final pricing disclosures and institutional investor demand—unlinked to supply contracts with Anthropic—will represent the truest indicator of capital markets’ direction toward the current generation of AI companies.
Frequently asked questions
Question: Why does Gary Marcus advise investors to avoid Anthropic’s IPO?
Answer: He believes the $1.4 trillion valuation relies on past growth projections that no longer hold true amid declining quarterly revenue growth and massive infrastructure commitments.
Question: How did Anthropic’s quarterly revenue growth rate change according to prospectus figures?
Answer: The quarterly revenue growth rate dropped from 147% in Q2 to 47% in Q3, which Marcus attributed to a decline in the token consumption boom and competition from cheaper Chinese models.
Question: What is the total future spending commitment recorded in Anthropic’s IPO prospectus?
Answer: The amended prospectus lists spending commitments approaching $895.4 billion, most of which are concentrated in cloud computing and infrastructure contracts.
Question: How does Gary Marcus’s analysis connect Anthropic’s IPO to OpenAI’s future?
Answer: He notes that OpenAI postponed its IPO to next year, meaning any weak performance by Anthropic’s public market offering could make OpenAI’s task harder later on.