As layoffs loom, experts are divided on who will bear the brunt of the artificial intelligence revolution. Are they entry-level employees whose tasks can be automated, or experienced employees whose skills may become obsolete?
Introduction: A question defining the future of work
When Amazon CEO Andy Jassy wrote last month that he expects his company’s use of artificial intelligence to “reduce our total workforce” over the next few years, it validated the fear among many workers that AI will replace them. This fear was reinforced two weeks later when Microsoft announced it would lay off about 9,000 people. That AI is about to displace white-collar workers is indisputable. But exactly what kind of worker? Mr. Jassy’s announcement landed right in the middle of a debate over this exact question.
The ultimate answer to this question has massive implications. If entry-level jobs are most at risk, it may require rethinking how we teach college students, or even the value of a college education itself. And if older workers are most at risk, it could lead to economic and even political instability as mass layoffs become a permanent feature of the labor market.
First argument: The danger to beginners
Some experts argue that AI is likely to disproportionately impact entry-level workers, whose tasks are generally simpler and therefore easier to automate. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei recently stated that the technology could consume half of all entry-level office roles within five years. The rise in the unemployment rate for recent college graduates has exacerbated this anxiety, even if AI has not been proven to be the cause of their labor market struggles.
Data from ADP shows that hiring for workers with less than two years of experience in computer-related fields peaked in 2023 and has since declined by about 20 to 25 percent. Meanwhile, hiring in these industries for workers with more experience has increased. This data suggests that companies may be using AI to automate tasks previously assigned to new hires, while retaining more experienced employees who can oversee these systems and perform more complex tasks.
Second argument: The danger to experts
But other AI industry leaders have taken the opposite view, arguing that younger workers are more likely to benefit from AI and that experienced workers will ultimately be more vulnerable. OpenAI Chief Operating Officer Brad Lightcap suggested that the technology could pose problems for “a class of workers who I think are more experienced, and routine-oriented in a certain way of doing things.”
The reason is that AI can effectively decouple valuable skills from the humans who traditionally possessed them. For example, you may no longer need to be an engineer to write code, or a lawyer to write a legal brief. Danielle Li, an economist at MIT, said: “This situation is not good for experienced workers. You are paid for the scarcity of your skill, and what is happening is that AI allows the skill to live outside of people.”
In this case, an entry-level worker empowered by AI can rival the productivity of an expert worker, but at a much lower cost, putting tremendous pressure on the salaries and expertise of veteran employees.
The complex reality: Not black and white
The reality is likely more complex than either of these scenarios. AI may impact different types of tasks across experience levels. For example, entry-level data entry tasks might be automated, but middle-manager financial analysis tasks could also be automated. At the same time, AI may create entirely new roles that require a mix of technical and human skills.
Robert Plotkin, a partner at a small intellectual property law firm, said AI has not impacted his firm’s need for lower-skilled workers like paralegals. But his firm now uses roughly half as many contract lawyers, including some with several years of experience, compared to a few years ago, because it has become more efficient at drafting patents with the help of AI.
Conclusion: Preparing for the transformation
Rather than trying to predict which group will be hit hardest, the wisest approach may be to recognize that all workers, regardless of age or experience, will need to adapt. Continuous learning, flexibility, and the ability to work alongside AI systems will become crucial. Educational systems, businesses, and governments must work together to create pathways for reskilling and supporting workers during this profound labor market shift.
