Introduction
In a clear and powerful indicator of the massive and ongoing technological transformation witnessed by the modern industrial sector, the global investment bank Morgan Stanley took a bold and important step on Tuesday by raising its projections for shipments of humanoid robots manufactured in China for 2026, marking the second consecutive time this year. This reflects the rapid growth, mounting confidence, and significant momentum in this economy-shifting technology and the localization of smart machinery.
- Rapid positive market outlook
- Chinese dominance of the global market
- The path toward widespread mass adoption
- The financial future of humanoid robots
- Frequently asked questions
Rapid positive market outlook
The bank’s new financial projections indicate that shipments will reach a record high of 50,000 units sold, roughly double previous expectations that stood at only 28,000 units at the beginning of the year. This substantial upward revision reflects the accelerating pace of deployment and wide commercial adoption of this advanced technology within harsh industrial environments, modern logistics centers, and retail outlets across China. The leading investment bank expects this technological market to achieve exceptional growth, reaching a total value of approximately $15 billion, accompanied by an annual shipment rate of 446,000 units by the end of the decade in 2030. The bank had initially projected shipments to reach 14,000 units for 2026 before doubling that figure to 28,000 units last January. Today’s upward revision to 50,000 units represents a massive and striking increase exceeding three times the initial original projections within a span of just six months, demonstrating industry stability and success.
Chinese dominance of the global market
Morgan Stanley analysts also expect China’s humanoid robot market size to reach $2 billion this year, rapid growth fully supported by the Beijing government’s decision to make embodied artificial intelligence a strategic national priority for the next five years, alongside substantial subsidies and aid for local companies to provide land, space, and factory construction. This revision clearly highlights the extent of China’s dominance over this emerging global industry. According to joint research published by Barclays and Morgan Stanley, Chinese manufacturers accounted for approximately 85 to 90 percent of total global robot shipments in 2025. Out of more than 13,000 humanoid robots shipped worldwide last year, China’s Agibot led the list by shipping nearly 5,100 units, followed by Unitree with more than 4,200 commercial units. By stark contrast, American companies such as Tesla, Figure AI, and Agility Robotics recorded very modest figures, shipping only about 150 experimental and commercial units each. The independent report noted that Chinese orders, exceeding an actual value of 2 billion Chinese yuan ($295 million), came intensively from state-owned enterprises to work in power plants, data centers, entertainment venues, and industrial operations.
The path toward widespread mass adoption
The general trajectory for the growth of this promising market continues to show a sharp upward slope toward continuous expansion. Barclays estimates place the current global market size for humanoid robots between $2 billion and $3 billion, but it is likely and realistic to reach an astronomical and historical leap of $200 billion by 2035 as reliance on them increases. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley’s long-term forward-looking perspective expects the market to transform into a $5 trillion industrial giant by the middle of the century in 2050, with more than one billion humanoid robots operating worldwide across various daily services and applications.
The financial future of humanoid robots
Currently, the primary commercial viability for companies focuses on performing and delegating repetitive, strenuous, and hazardous industrial tasks. However, the second wave of commercial adoption is strongly expected to begin after 2030, forcefully penetrating advanced healthcare, elderly care, and education sectors on a broad scale. Amid this dazzling acceleration, a pivotal core question arises: will leading Chinese companies manage to maintain their dominant market share, or will global firms be able to catch up with the difficult situation and expand production to compete fiercely?
Frequently asked questions
Question: What is the new robot sales volume projection in China for 2026?
Answer: Morgan Stanley raised its projection to ship 50,000 humanoid robot units instead of the 28,000 units previously set in January.
Question: What are the reasons behind this massive and sudden growth in Chinese production?
Answer: This is attributed to intensive government financial support, considering embodied artificial intelligence a strategic priority, and providing land and financial support to manufacturers.
Question: What are the fields where robots are currently relied upon?
Answer: They are relied upon in major factories, electric power plants, and massive data centers to perform repetitive and hazardous industrial tasks to save costs.
Question: When do experts expect robots to enter other fields such as healthcare?
Answer: Reports anticipate that the larger second wave of deployment will begin after 2030 to include education, medical care, elderly care sectors, and meeting daily community needs.
